WHO STEPPED UP: Three-way races change campaign rules.

It’s been true about as long as multi-field races have existed. What can win you a head-to-head race can lose a three-way race, and vice versa.

All negative campaign ads have some backfire to them. They have to. Voters don’t like them, and they don’t appreciate the candidate who launches them.

Good candidates with good political consultants know this. In a two-way race, it rarely matters, since the damage done to the victim of an attack ad is far worse than the damage done to the one doing the attacking. And, where else are voters going to go? Stay home? Possible. But much more likely they vote for the lesser of two evils in a political campaign that has become markedly negative.

Creigh Deeds did exactly what the third person should do when the other two are beating each other up. Duck! Stand back. Let them pummel each other.

Brian Moran launched a full-frontal assault on Terry McAuliffe in the closing weeks of the campaign. Though McAuliffe had a large lead to that point, it was mostly based on name ID and that he was really the only one heavily advertising. Once Moran and Deeds started their TV, things would tighten. Plus, McAuliffe’s Clinton connections hurt him even among Democrats. Bill lost repeatedly in Virginia, and Hillary got trounced in Virginia’s primary a year ago. His lead was bound to soften.

Moran’s attack had the intended effect on McAuliffe. McAuliffe’s polls dropped like a rock. But they didn’t flock to Moran. Voters bypassed him and discovered the other guy in the race. At the same time, the Washington Post endorsed Deeds, and though that wasn’t the main cause of Deeds’ resurgence, it did help with fundraising right when Deeds needed the boost.

That was where Deeds stepped up. He parlayed things he had very little control over (other candidates’ ads, newspapers’ fickle choices) and funneled it into raising significant dollars for TV ads. Smart ads too, that talked about Deeds the person and avoiding using his voice for the most part. No regional ploys for this ad - Deeds wanted statewide appeal while hoping the two Northern Virginians split Northern Virginia.

McAuliffe’s miscues included ignoring Deeds until it was too late and trying to stay “above the fray” - it’s almost impossible to stay above the fray when you’re the one with the highest negatives in the race.

Moran’s miscues included leading the attack charge against McAuliffe himself. A political action committee, special interest group or other elected officials who endorsed Moran could’ve done the dirty work. In Virginia, we’ve seen candidates from Jo Ann Davis to Jerry Kilgore win multi-person races simply by being the one not involved in mud, either throwing or catching.

Creigh Deeds and his political consultants likely planned for this all along. Ignoring calls from fellow Democrats to drop out from his last place position, Deeds instead stayed clean, campaigned hard in areas of Virginia the other guys were not focused on, conserved his money, and struck when his one opportunity to shine was handed to him.

Winning a three-way slugfest because the other two guys knocked each other out isn’t sexy, and doesn’t show any moxie for winning an upcoming head-to-head match with Bob McDonnell.

But it does show a smart understanding of history, a keen understanding of your opponents, and a professional level of patience that only the best politicians and political consultants are disciplined enough to possess.

Tags: Bob McDonnell, Creigh Deeds, Virginia

This entry was posted on Thursday, June 11th, 2009 at 8:00 am and is filed under State Government. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.